http://www.technologyreview.com/view/526111/how-the-internet-is-taking-away-americas-religion/
一篇美国的研究报告显示，无宗教信仰的美国人口比例从1990年的8%增加到了2010年的18%。他们把这个原因归罪于互联网，我看这个不是根本原因。
根本原因就是如南怀瑾老师所说，将来世界上的各个宗教必须脱去宗教的外衣，真正用科学的态度去研究它。将来的宗教肯定都会统一，因为这个宇宙的科学只有一个。
如果宗教还是穿着一个神话的外衣，而让人始终看不透，肯定会衰落，互联网只是加速了人们看清当前宗教的弊端！罪责不在互联网，而在宗教本身。
南老师的原话：宗教必须脱掉外衣
“我曾经在香港对宗教人士演讲，提到二十一世纪之时，所有宗教的外衣都必须脱掉，所有宗教的大门都必须打开，而且各宗教要联合起来共同服务，追求人生、宇宙的真谛，二十一世纪的文明，才能够建设。我说也许言之过早，但是你们可记录下来，将来必定如此。为什么呢？假使不脱掉宗教的外衣，不打开宗教的大门，还是闭关自守，对所有宗教而言，便有八个字的定论——‘关门主义，自杀政策。’”
------（《论语别裁》上册，复旦大学出版社出版发行，1996年6月第二版，第293页）
原文翻译：
How the Internet Is Taking Away America’s Religion
互联网是如何拿走美国的宗教
Using the Internet can destroy your faith. That’s the conclusion of a study showing that the dramatic drop in religious affiliation in the U.S. since 1990 is closely mirrored by the increase in Internet use.
使用互联网可以摧毁你的信仰。 一项研究的结论显示, 自1990年以来, 在美国宗教信仰的显著减少密切反映在互联网使用的增加上。
Back in 1990, about 8 percent of the U.S. population had no religious preference. By 2010, this percentage had more than doubled to 18 percent. That’s a difference of about 25 million people, all of whom have somehow lost their religion.
早在1990年,大约8%的美国人没有宗教的偏好。 到2010年,这个比例已经翻了一倍多至18%。 那是大约二千五百万人的一种区别，所有的人莫名其妙地丢失了他们的宗教。
That raises an obvious question: how come? Why are Americans losing their faith?
这提出了一个显而易见的问题:为什么? 为什么美国人失去他们的信仰?
Today, we get a possible answer thanks to the work of Allen Downey, a computer scientist at the Olin College of Engineering in Massachusetts, who has analyzed the data in detail. He says that the demise is the result of several factors but the most controversial of these is the rise of the Internet. He concludes that the increase in Internet use in the last two decades has caused a significant drop in religious affiliation.
今天,我们得到一个可能的答案，这得谢谢艾伦唐尼的工作, 作为一个计算机科学家在马萨诸塞州奥林工程学院详细分析了数据。 他说, 困境是多种因素的结果,但其中最具争议的是互联网的兴起。 他总结道,互联网使用的增长在过去二十年已经引起了宗教信仰的显著下降。
Downey’s data comes from the General Social Survey, a widely respected sociological survey carried out by the University of Chicago, that has regularly measure people’s attitudes and demographics since 1972.
唐尼的数据来自一项广受尊敬的社会学调查，由芝加哥大学，自 1972 年以来已定期衡量人们的态度和人口统计数据进行一般社会调查。
In that time, the General Social Survey has asked people questions such as: “what is your religious preference?” and “in what religion were you raised?” It also collects data on each respondent’s age, level of education, socioeconomic group, and so on. And in the Internet era, it has asked how long each person spends online. The total data set that Downey used consists of responses from almost 9,000 people.
在这段时间，一般社会调查问他们这样的问题：“你的宗教信仰是什么？”和“是什么样的宗教信仰伴你一生的成长？“它还收集数据每个被调查者的年龄、教育程度、社会经济团体,等等。 在互联网时代,它要求每个人花多长时间在网上。 唐尼使用的全部数据集包括了近9000人的样本。
Downey’s approach is to determine how the drop in religious affiliation correlates with other elements of the survey such as religious upbringing, socioeconomic status, education, and so on.
唐尼的方法是确定宗教信仰的下降与宗教教育、社会经济地位、教育，等等元素的关联。
He finds that the biggest influence on religious affiliation is religious upbringing—people who are brought up in a religion are more likely to be affiliated to that religion later.
他发现，在宗教信仰影响最大的是那些在宗教环境教育中长大的人，他们日后更有可能隶属或附属于那个宗教。
However, the number of people with a religious upbringing has dropped since 1990. It’s easy to imagine how this inevitably leads to a fall in the number who are religious later in life. In fact, Downey’s analysis shows that this is an important factor. However, it cannot account for all of the fall or anywhere near it. In fact, that data indicates that it only explains about 25 percent of the drop.
然而, 自1990年以来有宗教教育的人数已经下降了。容易想象这不可避免地会导致未来宗教在数量上的持续减少, 唐尼的分析表明,这事实上是一个重要因素。 然而,它还不能解释所有的下降或更多接近它的原因。这些数据事实上表明它只能解释大约25%的下降。
He goes on to show that college-level education also correlates with the drop. Once it again, it’s easy to imagine how contact with a wider group of people at college might contribute to a loss of religion.
他继续表明，大学水平的教育与下降相关。又易于想到，那些在大学中更为广泛的人群可能导致丧失信仰。
Since the 1980s, the fraction of people receiving college level education has increased from 17.4 percent to 27.2 percent in the 2000s. So it’s not surprising that this is reflected in the drop in numbers claiming religious affiliation today. But although the correlation is statistically significant, it can only account for about 5 percent of the drop, so some other factor must also be involved.
20世纪80年代以来，接受大学教育的人的比例从百分之17.4增加到百分之27.2年。所以毫不奇怪，这也是引起今天在宗教信仰数量下降的因素。尽管这些关联在统计上是重要的，但是它只能占大约5%的下降,所以其中一定会有其他因素。
That’s where the Internet comes in. In the 1980s, Internet use was essentially zero, but in 2010, 53 percent of the population spent two hours per week online and 25 percent surfed for more than 7 hours.
再就是在互联网的到来。在80年代，互联网使用基本上是零，但在2010年，53%的人平均每周花两小时上网且25%超过7小时。
This increase closely matches the decrease in religious affiliation. In fact, Downey calculates that it can account for about 25 percent of the drop.
这种增加接近和匹配于宗教信仰的跌幅。事实上，唐尼的计算，它可以占到大约25%的下降原因。
That’s a fascinating result. It implies that since 1990, the increase in Internet use has had as powerful an influence on religious affiliation as the drop in religious upbringing.
这是一个有趣的结果。 这意味着自1990年以来, 互联网的应用增量对宗教信仰或教养的下跌有强有力的影响。
At this point, it’s worth spending a little time talking about the nature of these conclusions. What Downey has found is correlations and any statistician will tell you that correlations do not imply causation. If A is correlated with B, there can be several possible explanations. A might cause B, B might cause A, or some other factor might cause both A and B.
在这一点上，它是值得花一些时间谈论这些结论的性质。唐尼已经发现的相关性和任何统计学家会告诉你，相关性并不意味着因果关系。相关性并不意味着因果关系。如果A与B,可以有多个可能的解释。可能导致B,B可能导致,或其他因素可能导致A和B。
But that does not mean that it is impossible to draw conclusions from correlations, only that they must be properly guarded. “Correlation does provide evidence in favor of causation, especially when we can eliminate alternative explanations or have reason to believe that they are less likely,” says Downey.
但这并不意味着它是不可能从相关性得出结论，只是他们必须看管好。唐尼说“相关并不为因果关系提供证据，特别是当我们可以排除其他解释或有理由相信他们是不太可能的“。
For example, it’s easy to imagine that a religious upbringing causes religious affiliation later in life. However, it’s impossible for the correlation to work the other way round. Religious affiliation later in life cannot cause a religious upbringing (although it may color a person’s view of their upbringing).
例如,很容易想象,一个宗教教育导致了在以后的生活中的宗教信仰。然而,相关情况不可能相反。以后的生活中的宗教信仰不能引起宗教教育（尽管它可能歪曲一个人对宗教教育的见解）。
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